Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓74% · @1.22
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓91% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.03
Grobiņa vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
Riga travel to face Grobiņa in the Virsliga on Saturday 18 April (12:00 WAT). Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 54 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Ogre United 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Riga's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Super Nova 4–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.6 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.7 for Grobiņa and 2.4 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grobiņa 9%, draw 17%, Riga 74%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Grobiņa 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa9%fair 11.49 · @11.00
Draw17%fair 5.79 · @5.10
Riga74%fair 1.35 · @1.22
3.16Expected goals
0.74Grobiņa xG
2.43Riga xG
54%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–110%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 0.7 – 2.4 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.48
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.03
–
Form
Grobiņa – last 5
DLDWL
13 Apr
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Riga – last 5
WDWWW
14 Apr
@ Super Nova
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grobiņa and Riga.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Riga?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Riga 74%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs Riga?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs Riga?
Grobiņa vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
