Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗63% · @1.73
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.56
Tukums vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Tukums take on FK Liepaja on Friday 17 April, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
FK Liepaja's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Auda 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
FK Liepaja arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Tukums and 2.0 for FK Liepaja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 14%, draw 23%, FK Liepaja 63%.
Safer route: FK Liepaja or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tukums 0–2 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums14%fair 7.33 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.75
FK Liepaja63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
2.85Expected goals
0.84Tukums xG
2.01FK Liepaja xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Tukums 0.8 – 2.0 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Liepaja to win✗
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
FK Liepaja or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.53
Half-time result
FK Liepaja ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Liepaja / FT FK Liepaja✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.56
–
Form
Tukums – last 6
LDDLDL
13 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
1–2
L
9 Apr
@ Riga
3–3
D
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FK Liepaja – last 5
LLWLW
8 Apr
vs Auda
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs FS Jelgava
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and FK Liepaja.
Our pick is FK Liepaja to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Tukums have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FK Liepaja 63%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Tukums 0–2 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs FK Liepaja?
Tukums vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
