Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Grobiņa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGrobiņa to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceGrobiņa or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.75
Ogre United vs Grobiņa preview and prediction
The match
Ogre United host Grobiņa in the Virsliga on Monday 13 April, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT). Ogre United are 10th with 19 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Grobiņa sit 8th on 29 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Ogre United's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to BFC Daugavpils 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Grobiņa's last 4: LDWL Most recently they lost to Super Nova 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Grobiņa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.7 for Ogre United and 1.5 for Grobiņa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ogre United 20%, draw 20%, Grobiņa 60%.
Safer route: Grobiņa or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Grobiņa to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Grobiņa or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ogre United 0–1 Grobiņa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ogre United20%fair 5.07 · @3.50
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.25
Grobiņa60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
2.14Expected goals
0.66Ogre United xG
1.48Grobiņa xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–213%
0–012%
1–111%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Ogre United 0.7 – 1.5 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grobiņa to win✗
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Grobiņa or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grobiņa / FT Grobiņa✗
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.75
–
Form
Ogre United – last 6
LLLDLL
7 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FK Liepaja
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Tukums
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Rīgas FS
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Grobiņa – last 4
LDWL
9 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ogre United and Grobiņa.
What is the prediction for Ogre United vs Grobiņa?
Our pick is Grobiņa or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ogre United vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers Ogre United have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Grobiņa 60%.
How many goals will there be in Ogre United vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ogre United vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is Ogre United 0–1 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ogre United vs Grobiņa?
Ogre United vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
