Tukums host Rīgas FS in the Virsliga on Monday 13 April, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Rīgas FS sit 1st on 89 points (top of the table). A gap of 64 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Riga 3–3 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Rīgas FS's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat FS Jelgava 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rīgas FS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.7 for Tukums and 2.3 for Rīgas FS. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 8%, draw 19%, Rīgas FS 72%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Rīgas FS to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Tukums 0–2 Rīgas FS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums8%fair 12.11 · @13.00
Draw19%fair 5.17 · @5.50
Rīgas FS72%fair 1.38 · @1.20
2.97Expected goals
0.68Tukums xG
2.29Rīgas FS xG
54%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Tukums 0.7 – 2.3 Rīgas FS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rīgas FS to win✓
72%
1.38
1.20
Double chance
Rīgas FS or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Half-time result
Rīgas FS ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rīgas FS / FT Rīgas FS✓
49%
2.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Tukums – last 5
DDLDL
9 Apr
@ Riga
3–3
D
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Rīgas FS – last 4
WLWW
8 Apr
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Auda
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ FK Liepaja
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Ogre United
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and Rīgas FS.
Our pick is Rīgas FS to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tukums vs Rīgas FS?
On our numbers Tukums have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rīgas FS 72%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Rīgas FS?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Rīgas FS?
Our predicted score is Tukums 0–2 Rīgas FS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Rīgas FS?
Tukums vs Rīgas FS (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
