Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 56% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +35%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✗72% · @1.08
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓87% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.03
Riga vs Tukums preview and prediction
The match
Tukums travel to Skonto stadions in the Virsliga on Thursday 9 April (17:00 WAT) to face Riga. Riga are 2nd with 83 points from 35 games (in the top four), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 58 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Riga's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Auda 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Tukums's last 4: DLDL Most recently they drew with Grobiņa 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.7 for Riga and 1.0 for Tukums. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga 72%, draw 15%, Tukums 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.40.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.40 – 56% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Riga 2–1 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga72%fair 1.38 · @1.08
Draw15%fair 6.63 · @7.60
Tukums13%fair 7.90 · @23.00
3.71Expected goals
2.67Riga xG
1.04Tukums xG
56%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Riga 2.7 – 1.0 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✗
72%
1.38
1.08
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
87%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.80
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✗
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.03
–
Form
Riga – last 3
WWW
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tukums – last 4
DLDL
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga and Tukums.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Riga vs Tukums?
On our numbers Riga have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Tukums 13%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Riga 2–1 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Tukums?
Riga vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
