BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
FK Liepaja or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗62% · @1.75
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.60
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils host FK Liepaja in the Virsliga on Friday 3 April, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FK Liepaja's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Ogre United 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for BFC Daugavpils and 2.0 for FK Liepaja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 14%, draw 25%, FK Liepaja 62%.
Safer route: FK Liepaja or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 1.75 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 0–1 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils14%fair 7.20 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.50
FK Liepaja62%fair 1.62 · @1.75
2.83Expected goals
0.86BFC Daugavpils xG
1.97FK Liepaja xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 0.9 – 2.0 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Liepaja to win✗
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Double chance
FK Liepaja or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
FK Liepaja ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Liepaja / FT FK Liepaja✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.60
–
Form
BFC Daugavpils – last 2
LL
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
1.5Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FK Liepaja – last 3
WLW
20 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs FS Jelgava
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepaja.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FK Liepaja 62%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 0–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
