Value bet: FS Jelgava to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFS Jelgava to win ✗55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.25
Super Nova vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
Super Nova host FS Jelgava in the Virsliga on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Slokas Stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Super Nova's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Auda 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Super Nova and 1.8 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 23%, draw 21%, FS Jelgava 55%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: FS Jelgava to win at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Super Nova 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova23%fair 4.29 · @3.30
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.30
FS Jelgava55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
2.78Expected goals
1.03Super Nova xG
1.75FS Jelgava xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.0 – 1.8 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FS Jelgava to win✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FS Jelgava / FT FS Jelgava✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.25
–
Form
Super Nova – last 3
LLD
8 Mar
@ Auda
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Paide
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kalju Nomme
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 2
WL
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Super Nova and FS Jelgava.
What is the prediction for Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FS Jelgava 55%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
Super Nova vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Slokas Stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
