The Virsliga sees FK Liepaja take on Riga on Saturday 7 March, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Daugavas stadions. FK Liepaja are 5th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 32 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 0.9 for FK Liepaja and 2.4 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Liepaja 12%, draw 20%, Riga 68%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: FK Liepaja 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Liepaja12%fair 8.55 · @5.60
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @4.60
Riga68%fair 1.46 · @1.40
3.31Expected goals
0.93FK Liepaja xG
2.38Riga xG
61%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
0–38%
1–18%
1–38%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 0.9 – 2.4 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win
68%
1.46
1.40
Double chance
Riga or draw
88%
1.13
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.65
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.65
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.40
–
Form
FK Liepaja – last 1
W
27 Feb
vs FS Jelgava
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Riga – last 2
WW
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Liepaja and Riga.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Riga?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Riga 68%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs Riga?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs Riga?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs Riga?
FK Liepaja vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
