Value bet: Madureira to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMadureira to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceMadureira or draw ✓82% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.73
Baré vs Madureira preview and prediction
The match
Madureira travel to face Baré in the Copa Do Brasil on Wednesday 18 February (21:00 WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.8 for Baré and 1.7 for Madureira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Baré 18%, draw 21%, Madureira 61%.
Safer route: Madureira or draw (82%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Madureira to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Baré 0–1 Madureira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Baré18%fair 5.42 · @4.40
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.25
Madureira61%fair 1.64 · @1.80
2.42Expected goals
0.75Baré xG
1.66Madureira xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Baré 0.8 – 1.7 Madureira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Madureira to win✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Madureira or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Madureira / FT Madureira✓
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.73
–
Form
Baré
No recent results on record.
Madureira – last 1
W
13 Feb
vs Boavista SC
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baré and Madureira.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Baré vs Madureira?
On our numbers Baré have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Madureira 61%.
How many goals will there be in Baré vs Madureira?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baré vs Madureira?
Our predicted score is Baré 0–1 Madureira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Baré vs Madureira?
Baré vs Madureira (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sampaio Corrêa RJ1
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Porto BA2
Serra Branca1
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Laguna0
Araguaína0
Primavera SP3