Value bet: Amarante to win @ 3.60 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.25
Mafra vs Amarante preview and prediction
The match
Mafra host Amarante in the Liga 3 on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Varzim 2–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Amarante's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Academica 1–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Amarante arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.6 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Amarante 1–0 Mafra.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Mafra and 1.1 for Amarante. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 40%, draw 26%, Amarante 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Amarante to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.95, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mafra 1–1 Amarante. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra40%fair 2.48 · @2.05
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.80
Amarante34%fair 2.96 · @3.60
2.31Expected goals
1.22Mafra xG
1.09Amarante xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.2 – 1.1 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Mafra vs Amarante?
On our numbers Mafra have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Amarante 34%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Amarante?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Amarante?
Mafra vs Amarante (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
1º Dezembro0
Amora1
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Sanjoanense2
Academica