Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Mafra to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceMafra or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Mafra vs União Santarém preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Mafra take on União Santarém on Friday 3 April, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while União Santarém sit 4th on 13 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Guimaraes B 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 March 2026, finished União Santarém 3–1 Mafra.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Mafra and 0.7 for União Santarém. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Mafra to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mafra or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mafra 1–0 União Santarém. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.10
União Santarém20%fair 5.09 · @3.75
2.24Expected goals
1.52Mafra xG
0.72União Santarém xG
47%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.5 – 0.7 União Santarém expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mafra vs União Santarém?
Our pick is Mafra or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mafra vs União Santarém?
On our numbers Mafra have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and União Santarém 20%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs União Santarém?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs União Santarém?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–0 União Santarém, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs União Santarém?
Mafra vs União Santarém (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
