Value bet: Guimaraes B to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.60
Mafra vs Guimaraes B preview and prediction
The match
Mafra host Guimaraes B in the Liga 3 on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Guimaraes B sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mafra's last 4: LDLW Most recently they lost to União Santarém 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Mafra and 1.0 for Guimaraes B. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 45%, draw 23%, Guimaraes B 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Guimaraes B to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mafra 1–1 Guimaraes B. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra45%fair 2.22 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.90
Guimaraes B31%fair 3.18 · @3.50
2.27Expected goals
1.27Mafra xG
1.00Guimaraes B xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.3 – 1.0 Guimaraes B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✗
45%
2.22
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.60
–
Form
Mafra – last 4
LDLW
4 Mar
@ União Santarém
1–3
L
27 Feb
@ Trofense
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Amarante
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Varzim
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Guimaraes B – last 2
WD
21 Feb
@ União Santarém
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs CF Os Belenenses
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Guimaraes B.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Mafra vs Guimaraes B?
On our numbers Mafra have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guimaraes B 31%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Guimaraes B?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Guimaraes B?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 Guimaraes B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Guimaraes B?
Mafra vs Guimaraes B (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amarante1
Sanjoanense1
SC Braga B1