Value bet: Varzim to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✓39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.12
Mafra vs Varzim preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Mafra take on Varzim on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Varzim sit 6th on 12 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Mafra and 1.2 for Varzim. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 39%, draw 25%, Varzim 36%.
Value angle: Varzim to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Mafra 1–1 Varzim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra39%fair 2.57 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.90
Varzim36%fair 2.80 · @3.00
2.43Expected goals
1.25Mafra xG
1.18Varzim xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.2 – 1.2 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✓
39%
2.57
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.12
–
Form
Mafra
No recent results on record.
Varzim
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Varzim.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Mafra vs Varzim?
On our numbers Mafra have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Varzim 36%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Varzim?
Mafra vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amora0
1º Dezembro1
SC Braga B1