Croatia vs Belgium prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Belgium to win @ 2.64 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Croatia 1.6 – 1.8 Belgium expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Belgium shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 35% for Croatia.
Croatia have taken 3 points from their last 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Belgium have 1 points from their last 1 (0W 1D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (1.6 for Croatia, 1.8 for Belgium). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.25. For a bigger price, Belgium to win at 2.64 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Belgium to win ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | 2.64 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Belgium / FT Belgium ✓ | 26% | 3.85 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.51 | – |
Form
Croatia – last 2
| 1 Apr | @ Brazil | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Mar | @ Colombia | 2–1 | W |
Belgium – last 1
| 1 Apr | @ Mexico | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Croatia and Belgium.
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What is the prediction for Croatia vs Belgium?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Croatia vs Belgium?
On our numbers Croatia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Belgium 44%.
How many goals will there be in Croatia vs Belgium?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Croatia vs Belgium?
Croatia vs Belgium (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 2 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion HNK Rijeka Dean Šćulac.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.