FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico preview and prediction
The match
FBC Melgar host Alianza Atletico in the Primera División on Sunday 31 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio de la UNSA. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Alianza Atletico sit 7th on 28 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Juan Pablo II College 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Alianza Atletico's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Tigre 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
FBC Melgar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for FBC Melgar and 0.6 for Alianza Atletico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1–0 Alianza Atletico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar68%fair 1.48 · @1.55
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @3.80
Alianza Atletico13%fair 7.59 · @6.20
2.52Expected goals
1.87FBC Melgar xG
0.65Alianza Atletico xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.6 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✓
68%
1.48
1.55
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.64
–
Form
FBC Melgar – last 6
DWLWWD
22 May
@ Juan Pablo II College
1–1
D
4 May
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
28 Apr
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
LDDLLL
29 May
@ Tigre
0–2
L
24 May
vs FC Cajamarca
1–1
D
22 May
@ Macara
0–0
D
11 May
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–2
L
7 May
vs America de Cali
0–2
L
1 May
vs Macara
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alianza Atletico 13%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
