Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Alianza Lima take on Sporting Cristal on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Alianza Lima are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Sporting Cristal sit 2nd on 32 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alianza Lima's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat UCV Moquegua 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sporting Cristal's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Alianza Lima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Alianza Lima and 0.8 for Sporting Cristal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Lima 62%, draw 25%, Sporting Cristal 13%.
Safer route: Alianza Lima or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Alianza Lima 2–0 Sporting Cristal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Lima62%fair 1.62 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.65
Sporting Cristal13%fair 7.67 · @4.75
2.71Expected goals
1.91Alianza Lima xG
0.80Sporting Cristal xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.9 – 0.8 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✗
62%
1.62
1.70
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.86
–
Form
Alianza Lima – last 6
WWWLWD
3 May
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting Cristal – last 6
LWLLWL
5 May
vs Palmeiras
0–2
L
29 Apr
vs Junior
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Atletico Grau
1–4
L
16 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Cerro Porteno
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and Sporting Cristal.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sporting Cristal 13%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
