FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca preview and prediction
The match
FBC Melgar host UTC Cajamarca in the Primera División on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio de la UNSA. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while UTC Cajamarca sit 18th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
UTC Cajamarca's last 4: DLDW Most recently they drew with Sport Huancayo 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for FBC Melgar and 0.9 for UTC Cajamarca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FBC Melgar 61%, draw 22%, UTC Cajamarca 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar61%fair 1.63 · @1.51
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @4.10
UTC Cajamarca16%fair 6.14 · @6.20
2.83Expected goals
1.94FBC Melgar xG
0.89UTC Cajamarca xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.9 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✓
61%
1.63
1.51
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.74
–
Form
FBC Melgar – last 6
LWWDDL
28 Apr
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 4
DLDW
15 Apr
vs Sport Huancayo
2–2
D
15 Mar
@ Universitario
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ ADT
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Cusco
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UTC Cajamarca 16%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
