Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversitario to win ✓72% · @1.30
Double chanceUniversitario or draw ✓89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.10
Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Universitario take on Deportivo Garcilaso on Thursday 23 April, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Monumental. Universitario are 3rd with 32 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Deportivo Garcilaso sit 4th on 29 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Universitario's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to FBC Melgar 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Garcilaso's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Sport Huancayo 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Universitario arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Universitario and 0.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Universitario 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Universitario72%fair 1.39 · @1.30
Draw17%fair 5.91 · @4.65
Deportivo Garcilaso11%fair 8.97 · @11.50
2.46Expected goals
1.92Universitario xG
0.54Deportivo Garcilaso xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–016%
3–010%
1–19%
0–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Universitario 1.9 – 0.5 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universitario to win✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Double chance
Universitario or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.35
Half-time result
Universitario ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universitario / FT Universitario✓
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.10
–
Form
Universitario – last 6
LLDWWW
19 Apr
@ FBC Melgar
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Coquimbo Unido
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Alianza Lima
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
LDLLLL
18 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universitario and Deportivo Garcilaso.
What is the prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Universitario have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Deportivo Garcilaso 11%.
How many goals will there be in Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Universitario 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
