Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Comerciantes Unidos or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Comerciantes Unidos to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultComerciantes Unidos to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceComerciantes Unidos or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Comerciantes Unidos take on Alianza Atletico on Wednesday 22 April, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra. Comerciantes Unidos are 13th with 16 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Alianza Atletico sit 7th on 28 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Comerciantes Unidos's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Sport Huancayo 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Alianza Atletico's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to America de Cali 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.8 for Alianza Atletico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Comerciantes Unidos 58%, draw 23%, Alianza Atletico 19%.
Safer route: Comerciantes Unidos or draw (81%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Comerciantes Unidos to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Comerciantes Unidos or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Alianza Atletico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Comerciantes Unidos58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.25
Alianza Atletico19%fair 5.14 · @4.30
2.38Expected goals
1.59Comerciantes Unidos xG
0.78Alianza Atletico xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.6 – 0.8 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Comerciantes Unidos to win✓
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Comerciantes Unidos or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Comerciantes Unidos / FT Comerciantes Unidos✗
35%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Form
Comerciantes Unidos – last 5
DWWLD
5 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ FC Cajamarca
4–3
W
1 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
3–1
W
23 Feb
@ Cusco
1–3
L
15 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
LDWDDD
16 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–2
L
8 Apr
vs Tigre
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Comerciantes Unidos and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Comerciantes Unidos or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Comerciantes Unidos have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Atletico 19%.
How many goals will there be in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
