Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓43% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.95
ADT vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima travel to Estadio Union Tarma in the Primera División on Tuesday 14 April (21:15 WAT) to face ADT. ADT are 16th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
ADT's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Cienciano 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Alianza Lima's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Universitario 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alianza Lima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for ADT and 1.2 for Alianza Lima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ADT 35%, draw 22%, Alianza Lima 43%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: ADT 1–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ADT35%fair 2.87 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.20
Alianza Lima43%fair 2.33 · @2.38
2.27Expected goals
1.05ADT xG
1.22Alianza Lima xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: ADT 1.1 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
43%
2.33
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.95
–
Form
ADT – last 5
LDLDD
4 Apr
@ Cienciano
2–3
L
20 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 6
LWDWWD
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ADT and Alianza Lima.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win ADT vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers ADT have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alianza Lima 43%.
How many goals will there be in ADT vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ADT vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is ADT 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ADT vs Alianza Lima?
ADT vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Union Tarma.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
