FBC Melgar host Cusco in the Primera División on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Cusco sit 10th on 24 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with ADT 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cusco's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Cienciano 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Cusco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for FBC Melgar and 0.7 for Cusco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FBC Melgar 66%, draw 20%, Cusco 14%.
Safer route: FBC Melgar or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FBC Melgar to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1–0 Cusco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar66%fair 1.51 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.70
Cusco14%fair 7.13 · @4.55
2.61Expected goals
1.90FBC Melgar xG
0.71Cusco xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.7 Cusco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win
66%
1.51
1.73 ▲
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.77
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
1.99
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
14%
7.15
–
Form
FBC Melgar – last 5
DDLLW
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Cusco – last 4
LWWL
16 Mar
vs Cienciano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Comerciantes Unidos
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ UTC Cajamarca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Cusco.
Our pick is FBC Melgar to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cusco 14%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–0 Cusco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
FBC Melgar vs Cusco (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
