Value bet: D. Puerto Montt to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultD. Puerto Montt to win ✗42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.14
Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B sees Union San Felipe take on D. Puerto Montt on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe. Union San Felipe are 15th with 23 points from 29 games (in the bottom three), while D. Puerto Montt sit 11th on 38 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union San Felipe's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Deportes Temuco 0–5 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
D. Puerto Montt's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to San Marcos de Arica 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Union San Felipe and 1.3 for D. Puerto Montt. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union San Felipe 34%, draw 24%, D. Puerto Montt 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: D. Puerto Montt to win at 2.55 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Union San Felipe 1–1 D. Puerto Montt. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union San Felipe34%fair 2.92 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
D. Puerto Montt42%fair 2.40 · @2.55
2.49Expected goals
1.17Union San Felipe xG
1.33D. Puerto Montt xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Union San Felipe 1.2 – 1.3 D. Puerto Montt expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
D. Puerto Montt to win✗
42%
2.40
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT D. Puerto Montt / FT D. Puerto Montt✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.14
–
Form
Union San Felipe – last 6
LLWDLW
24 May
@ Deportes Temuco
0–5
L
4 May
@ San Luis
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ Deportes Santa Cruz
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs San Marcos de Arica
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Recoleta
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Antofagasta
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
D. Puerto Montt – last 6
LLWWLW
24 May
vs San Marcos de Arica
0–2
L
17 May
@ San Luis
1–4
L
9 May
vs Magallanes
2–0
W
3 May
@ Rangers de Talca
1–0
W
26 Apr
@ Curico Unido
1–2
L
21 Apr
vs Deportes Temuco
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union San Felipe and D. Puerto Montt.
What is the prediction for Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt?
On our numbers Union San Felipe have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and D. Puerto Montt 42%.
How many goals will there be in Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt?
Our predicted score is Union San Felipe 1–1 D. Puerto Montt, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt?
Union San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt (Primera B) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
