Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz prediction & analysis
73%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.38
8/10Rating
1.38Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultRecoleta to win46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.93
Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Santa Cruz travel to face Recoleta in the Primera B on Saturday 9 May (17:30 WAT). Recoleta are 7th with 42 points from 29 games (in the top half), while Deportes Santa Cruz sit 14th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Recoleta's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to San Marcos de Arica 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportes Santa Cruz's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Union San Felipe 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Recoleta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for Recoleta and 1.3 for Deportes Santa Cruz. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Recoleta 46%, draw 22%, Deportes Santa Cruz 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Recoleta 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Recoleta46%fair 2.20 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Deportes Santa Cruz32%fair 3.08 · @2.90
2.96Expected goals
1.63Recoleta xG
1.33Deportes Santa Cruz xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Recoleta 1.6 – 1.3 Deportes Santa Cruz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Recoleta to win
46%
2.20
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Recoleta / FT Recoleta
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.93
–
Form
Recoleta – last 5
LLWWW
5 May
@ San Marcos de Arica
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Deportes Temuco
1–5
L
13 Mar
vs Union San Felipe
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Union Espanola
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Deportes Santa Cruz – last 6
LLWLLD
19 Apr
vs Union San Felipe
1–3
L
30 Mar
@ San Luis
2–3
L
22 Mar
vs Curico Unido
4–2
W
16 Mar
@ D. Puerto Montt
0–2
L
9 Mar
@ Santiago Wanderers
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Cobreloa
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recoleta and Deportes Santa Cruz.
What is the prediction for Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
On our numbers Recoleta have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Santa Cruz 32%.
How many goals will there be in Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
Our predicted score is Recoleta 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz?
Recoleta vs Deportes Santa Cruz (Primera B) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
