Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Dinamo Tbilisi to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDinamo Tbilisi to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceDinamo Tbilisi or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.48
Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi preview and prediction
The match
Samgurali host Dinamo Tbilisi in the Erovnuli Liga on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava. Samgurali are 7th with 39 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Dinamo Tbilisi sit 3rd on 58 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Samgurali's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Torpedo Kutaisi 2–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Dinamo Tbilisi's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Gagra 4–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Dinamo Tbilisi arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 June 2026, finished Dinamo Tbilisi 5–3 Samgurali.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Samgurali and 2.0 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Dinamo Tbilisi to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Dinamo Tbilisi or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samgurali 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samgurali15%fair 6.46 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.20
Dinamo Tbilisi62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
2.98Expected goals
0.94Samgurali xG
2.04Dinamo Tbilisi xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Samgurali 0.9 – 2.0 Dinamo Tbilisi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our pick is Dinamo Tbilisi or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
On our numbers Samgurali have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dinamo Tbilisi 62%.
How many goals will there be in Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our predicted score is Samgurali 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
