Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Samgurali to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSamgurali to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceSamgurali or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.25
Samgurali vs Rustavi preview and prediction
The match
Rustavi travel to 26 May Stadium in the Erovnuli Liga on Friday 3 April (12:00 WAT) to face Samgurali. Samgurali are 7th with 39 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Rustavi sit 4th on 56 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Samgurali's last 4: LDDW Most recently they lost to Spaeri 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rustavi's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to Gagra 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Samgurali arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for Samgurali and 0.4 for Rustavi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely.
Value angle: Samgurali to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Samgurali or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samgurali 1–0 Rustavi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samgurali63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @2.90
Rustavi15%fair 6.63 · @3.50
1.71Expected goals
1.30Samgurali xG
0.41Rustavi xG
46%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–018%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Samgurali 1.3 – 0.4 Rustavi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Samgurali to win✓
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Samgurali or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Samgurali / FT Samgurali✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.25
–
Form
Samgurali – last 4
LDDW
16 Mar
@ Spaeri
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Dinamo Batumi
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Meshakhte
0–0
D
2 Mar
@ Gagra
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Rustavi – last 3
LDL
15 Mar
vs Gagra
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Dinamo Tbilisi
0–0
D
17 Feb
vs Dukla Banská Bystrica
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Samgurali and Rustavi.
Our pick is Samgurali or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Samgurali vs Rustavi?
On our numbers Samgurali have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rustavi 15%.
How many goals will there be in Samgurali vs Rustavi?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Our predicted score is Samgurali 1–0 Rustavi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Samgurali vs Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at 26 May Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
