NWSL Women · USA · PayPal ParkBay FC W vs Houston Dash W prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Bay FC W to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bay FC W 1.8 – 1.0 Houston Dash W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bay FC W hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 22% for Houston Dash W.
Bay FC W have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Houston Dash W have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Houston Dash W come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 for Bay FC W, 1.0 for Houston Dash W). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Bay FC W have won 0, Houston Dash W have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Bay FC W to win at 1.85 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bay FC W to win ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Bay FC W ahead at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bay FC W / FT Bay FC W ✗ | 36% | 2.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 11% | 9.20 | – |
Form
Bay FC W – last 6
| 15 Aug | @ Utah Royals W | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Aug | @ Chicago Red Stars W | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs Seattle Reign FC W | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Jul | vs NJNY Gotham FC W | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Jul | @ Houston Dash W | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Jul | vs North Carolina Courage W | 3–0 | W |
Houston Dash W – last 6
| 20 Aug | vs Chicago Red Stars W | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | @ North Carolina Courage W | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Kansas City W | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs NJNY Gotham FC W | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Bay FC W | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Jul | @ Racing Louisville W | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 25 Jul 2026 | Houston Dash W v Bay FC W | 1–0 |
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 30 | +16 | 61 |
| 2 |  San Diego Wave W | 30 | +14 | 58 |
| 3 |  Washington Spirit W | 30 | +15 | 55 |
| 4 |  Kansas City W | 30 | +15 | 53 |
| 5 |  Angel City W | 30 | +22 | 52 |
| 6 |  Portland Thorns W | 30 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 |  Utah Royals W | 30 | +5 | 47 |
| 8 |  Seattle Reign FC W | 30 | +4 | 47 |
| 9 |  North Carolina Courage W | 30 | +10 | 45 |
| 10 |  Denver Summit W | 30 | +11 | 41 |
| 11 |  Orlando Pride W | 30 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 |  Houston Dash W | 30 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 |  Boston Legacy W | 30 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 |  Bay FC W | 30 | -17 | 27 |
| 15 |  Racing Louisville W | 30 | -24 | 24 |
| 16 |  Chicago Red Stars W | 30 | -54 | 17 |
More NWSL Women predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W?
On our numbers Bay FC W have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Houston Dash W 22%.
How many goals will there be in Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W?
Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W (NWSL Women) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.