Double chancePortland Thorns W or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W preview and prediction
The match
The NWSL Women sees Portland Thorns W take on Bay FC W on Thursday 21 May, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Providence Park. Portland Thorns W are 6th with 50 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Bay FC W sit 14th on 27 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Portland Thorns W's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Angel City W 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Bay FC W's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Boston Legacy W 1–1 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bay FC W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Portland Thorns W and 1.0 for Bay FC W. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portland Thorns W 60%, draw 22%, Bay FC W 18%.
Safer route: Portland Thorns W or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Portland Thorns W 1–1 Bay FC W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portland Thorns W60%fair 1.68 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.45
Bay FC W18%fair 5.58 · @4.00
2.74Expected goals
1.78Portland Thorns W xG
0.96Bay FC W xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Portland Thorns W 1.8 – 1.0 Bay FC W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Portland Thorns W
Bay FC W
Attack vs NWSL Women average
+13%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+12%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.92
1.14
Our own ratings from every NWSL Women result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portland Thorns W to win✓
60%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Portland Thorns W or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Half-time result
Portland Thorns W ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portland Thorns W / FT Portland Thorns W✓
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Portland Thorns W – last 6
DLWWDL
17 May
vs Angel City W
0–0
D
8 May
@ Racing Louisville W
1–3
L
30 Apr
vs San Diego Wave W
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Angel City W
2–1
W
4 Apr
@ North Carolina Courage W
2–2
D
26 Mar
@ San Diego Wave W
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bay FC W – last 5
DWWLW
16 May
vs Boston Legacy W
1–1
D
4 May
@ San Diego Wave W
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ North Carolina Courage W
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Angel City W
1–3
L
14 Mar
vs Denver Summit W
2–1
W
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portland Thorns W and Bay FC W.
What is the prediction for Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W?
On our numbers Portland Thorns W have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bay FC W 18%.
How many goals will there be in Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W?
Our predicted score is Portland Thorns W 1–1 Bay FC W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W?
Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W (NWSL Women) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Providence Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
