Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHamrun Spartans to win ✓64% · @1.44
Double chanceHamrun Spartans or draw ✓85% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.93
Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara preview and prediction
The match
Hamrun Spartans host Birkirkara in the Premier League on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Tony Bezzina Stadium. Hamrun Spartans are 5th with 18 points from 12 games, while Birkirkara sit 7th on 16 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Hamrun Spartans's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Valletta FC 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Birkirkara's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Zabbar St. Patrick 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Hamrun Spartans and 0.6 for Birkirkara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Birkirkara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hamrun Spartans64%fair 1.57 · @1.44
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.95
Birkirkara15%fair 6.57 · @6.50
2.28Expected goals
1.65Hamrun Spartans xG
0.63Birkirkara xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Hamrun Spartans 1.7 – 0.6 Birkirkara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hamrun Spartans to win✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Double chance
Hamrun Spartans or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamrun Spartans / FT Hamrun Spartans✓
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.93
–
Form
Hamrun Spartans – last 5
DDWWD
4 Mar
@ Valletta FC
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Floriana
1–1
D
23 Feb
vs Marsaxlokk
2–0
W
18 Feb
@ Hibernians
1–0
W
13 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Birkirkara – last 5
WDWLD
4 Mar
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Naxxar Lions
0–0
D
25 Feb
vs Pietà Hotspurs
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Sliema Wanderers
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hamrun Spartans and Birkirkara.
What is the prediction for Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
On our numbers Hamrun Spartans have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Birkirkara 15%.
How many goals will there be in Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Our predicted score is Hamrun Spartans 1–0 Birkirkara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara?
Hamrun Spartans vs Birkirkara (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Tony Bezzina Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tarxien Rainbows1
Naxxar Lions1