Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Samtredia to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSamtredia to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceSamtredia or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.97
Samtredia vs Gareji preview and prediction
The match
Gareji travel to Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium in the Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 12 September (16:00 WAT) to face Samtredia. Samtredia are 4th with 46 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Gareji sit 1st on 57 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Samtredia's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Telavi 3–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gareji's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Sioni 3–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Samtredia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished Gareji 3–2 Samtredia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Samtredia and 0.8 for Gareji. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Samtredia 63%, draw 21%, Gareji 16%.
Safer route: Samtredia or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Samtredia to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Samtredia or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samtredia 1–0 Gareji. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samtredia63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.60
Gareji16%fair 6.37 · @3.60
2.72Expected goals
1.90Samtredia xG
0.82Gareji xG
46%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Samtredia 1.9 – 0.8 Gareji expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Samtredia or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Samtredia vs Gareji?
On our numbers Samtredia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gareji 16%.
How many goals will there be in Samtredia vs Gareji?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samtredia vs Gareji?
Our predicted score is Samtredia 1–0 Gareji, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Samtredia vs Gareji?
Samtredia vs Gareji (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
