UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
UCV or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultUCV to win58% · @1.83
Double chanceUCV or draw82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.35
UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC preview and prediction
The match
UCV host Estudiantes de Merida FC in the Primera División on Saturday 14 March, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV. UCV are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Estudiantes de Merida FC sit 9th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estudiantes de Merida FC's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Guaira 0–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.2 for UCV and 1.2 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV 58%, draw 24%, Estudiantes de Merida FC 18%.
Safer route: UCV or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was UCV or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: UCV 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV58%fair 1.73 · @1.83
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.30
Estudiantes de Merida FC18%fair 5.57 · @4.00
3.42Expected goals
2.21UCV xG
1.21Estudiantes de Merida FC xG
62%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–07%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: UCV 2.2 – 1.2 Estudiantes de Merida FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCV to win
58%
1.73
1.83 ▲
Double chance
UCV or draw
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
UCV ahead at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCV / FT UCV
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.35
–
Form
UCV – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ Caracas FC
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Estudiantes de Merida FC – last 4
LWWL
6 Mar
vs Deportivo La Guaira
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Puerto Cabello
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Academia Anzoátegui
3–0
W
13 Feb
vs Rayo Zuliano
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV and Estudiantes de Merida FC.
What is the prediction for UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our pick is UCV or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
On our numbers UCV have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 18%.
How many goals will there be in UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our predicted score is UCV 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
UCV vs Estudiantes de Merida FC (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
