Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin host Atletico Nacional in the Primera A on Sunday 12 April, with kick-off at 02:20 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Jaguares 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Independiente Medellin and 1.5 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente Medellin 33%, draw 21%, Atletico Nacional 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin33%fair 3.01 · @2.94
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Atletico Nacional46%fair 2.18 · @2.28
2.73Expected goals
1.22Independiente Medellin xG
1.50Atletico Nacional xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.2 – 1.5 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
46%
2.18
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 6
DDWLWW
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WDWWLW
7 Apr
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Cucuta
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Millonarios
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Nacional 46%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
