Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Deportivo Pasto or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Deportivo Pasto to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✓61% · @1.90
Double chanceDeportivo Pasto or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.57
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima travel to Estadio Departamental Libertad in the Primera A on Saturday 11 April (02:05 WAT) to face Deportivo Pasto. Deportivo Pasto are 18th with 15 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Alianza Valledupar 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Universitario 0–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.7 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%.
Safer route: Deportivo Pasto or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Deportivo Pasto to win at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Pasto or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Pasto61%fair 1.63 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.20
Deportes Tolima18%fair 5.53 · @4.35
2.39Expected goals
1.66Deportivo Pasto xG
0.73Deportes Tolima xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.7 – 0.7 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Pasto to win✓
61%
1.63
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Pasto or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Pasto / FT Deportivo Pasto✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.57
–
Form
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
DLWWLW
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportes Tolima – last 6
DDWWDW
8 Apr
vs Universitario
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–2
D
1 Apr
vs Águilas Doradas
4–1
W
29 Mar
vs Jaguares
3–1
W
23 Mar
@ Chico
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Deportivo Pasto or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportes Tolima 18%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
