Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOnce Caldas to win ✗41% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin travel to Estadio Palogrande in the Primera A on Friday 3 April (02:30 WAT) to face Once Caldas. Once Caldas are 8th with 27 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Once Caldas's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Llaneros 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat America de Cali 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Once Caldas and 1.4 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Once Caldas 41%, draw 23%, Independiente Medellin 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Once Caldas41%fair 2.46 · @2.12
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin36%fair 2.74 · @3.30
2.83Expected goals
1.46Once Caldas xG
1.37Independiente Medellin xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.5 – 1.4 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Once Caldas to win✗
41%
2.46
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Once Caldas / FT Once Caldas✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.60
–
Form
Once Caldas – last 6
DLDWWW
30 Mar
@ Llaneros
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–4
L
19 Mar
@ Bucaramanga
1–1
D
14 Mar
vs Deportivo Pasto
4–2
W
7 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Chico
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WLWWWD
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Once Caldas and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente Medellin 36%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
