Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✗38% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.41
Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Pasto travel to Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in the Primera A on Wednesday 1 April (22:10 WAT) to face Alianza Valledupar. Alianza Valledupar are 16th with 18 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alianza Valledupar's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Águilas Doradas 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Atletico Nacional 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Valledupar36%fair 2.77 · @2.76
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
Deportivo Pasto38%fair 2.62 · @2.70
2.28Expected goals
1.12Alianza Valledupar xG
1.16Deportivo Pasto xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.1 – 1.2 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Pasto to win✗
38%
2.62
2.70
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Pasto / FT Deportivo Pasto✗
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.41
–
Form
Alianza Valledupar – last 6
LWDDLD
27 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Jaguares
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Junior
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Cucuta
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
LWWLWD
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Pasto 38%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
