Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Fe to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin travel to Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in the Primera A on Monday 23 March (22:10 WAT) to face Santa Fe. Santa Fe are 5th with 31 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santa Fe's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Cali 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Junior 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Santa Fe and 1.2 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Fe 41%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Fe41%fair 2.47 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Independiente Medellin35%fair 2.83 · @3.25
2.55Expected goals
1.33Santa Fe xG
1.22Independiente Medellin xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.3 – 1.2 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Fe to win✓
41%
2.47
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✓
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.63
–
Form
Santa Fe – last 6
DDLWLL
19 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Junior
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Jaguares
1–3
L
14 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WWWDLD
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente Medellin 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
