Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 1.86 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✗61% · @1.86
Double chanceDeportes Tolima or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.31
Chico vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Chico host Deportes Tolima in the Primera A on Monday 23 March, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Independencia. Chico are 15th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Chico's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Deportivo Pasto 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Fortaleza FC 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportes Tolima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for Chico and 1.6 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 49%.
Safer route: Deportes Tolima or draw (81%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Deportes Tolima to win at 1.86 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportes Tolima or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Chico 0–1 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chico19%fair 5.26 · @4.20
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.40
Deportes Tolima61%fair 1.63 · @1.86
2.31Expected goals
0.71Chico xG
1.60Deportes Tolima xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Chico 0.7 – 1.6 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✗
61%
1.63
1.86 ▲
Double chance
Deportes Tolima or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✗
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.31
–
Form
Chico – last 5
LWLLL
18 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Millonarios
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Once Caldas
0–3
L
23 Feb
vs Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
16 Feb
@ Fortaleza FC
1–2
L
0.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WWLWLW
20 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–0
W
12 Mar
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
5 Mar
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
@ Cucuta
2–3
L
20 Feb
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chico and Deportes Tolima.
What is the prediction for Chico vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Deportes Tolima or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chico vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Chico have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportes Tolima 61%.
How many goals will there be in Chico vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chico vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Chico 0–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Chico vs Deportes Tolima?
Chico vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Independencia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
