Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.71 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓66% · @1.71
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Independiente Medellin vs Junior preview and prediction
The match
Junior travel to Estadio Atanasio Girardot in the Primera A on Friday 20 March (02:30 WAT) to face Independiente Medellin. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Junior sit 14th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Jaguares 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Junior's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Fortaleza FC 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Independiente Medellin and 0.8 for Junior. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Independiente Medellin or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 1.71 – 66% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Junior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin66%fair 1.52 · @1.71
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.75
Junior15%fair 6.84 · @4.55
2.90Expected goals
2.06Independiente Medellin xG
0.84Junior xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.1 – 0.8 Junior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
66%
1.52
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.38
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WWDLDD
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Llaneros
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Junior – last 6
WLDWLW
16 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
0–4
L
6 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
19 Feb
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Junior.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Junior?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Junior?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Junior 15%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Junior?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Junior?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Junior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Junior?
Independiente Medellin vs Junior (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
