Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chanceDeportes Tolima or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.25
Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Deportes Tolima take on Fortaleza FC on Friday 20 March, kicking off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Fortaleza FC sit 20th on 12 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat O'Higgins 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fortaleza FC's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Junior 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Deportes Tolima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Deportes Tolima and 0.7 for Fortaleza FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 63%, draw 23%, Fortaleza FC 15%.
Safer route: Deportes Tolima or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Fortaleza FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima63%fair 1.59 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.50
Fortaleza FC15%fair 6.83 · @5.40
2.36Expected goals
1.70Deportes Tolima xG
0.66Fortaleza FC xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.7 – 0.7 Fortaleza FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✓
63%
1.59
1.67
Double chance
Deportes Tolima or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.25
–
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WLWLWW
12 Mar
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
5 Mar
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
@ Cucuta
2–3
L
20 Feb
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Once Caldas
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fortaleza FC – last 5
LWDWL
16 Mar
@ Junior
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Chico
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
1–4
L
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Fortaleza FC.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fortaleza FC 15%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Fortaleza FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
