Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Jaguares take on Independiente Medellin on Monday 16 March, kicking off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Jaraguay. Jaguares are 19th with 13 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Jaguares's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Llaneros 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Juventud 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Jaguares and 1.7 for Independiente Medellin. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Jaguares 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jaguares28%fair 3.59 · @3.50
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.20
Independiente Medellin48%fair 2.08 · @2.00
2.95Expected goals
1.25Jaguares xG
1.70Independiente Medellin xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Jaguares 1.3 – 1.7 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
Attack vs Primera A average
-16%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
+43%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.31
1.77
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
48%
2.08
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.57
–
Form
Jaguares – last 5
LLLLW
9 Mar
@ Llaneros
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Junior
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–3
L
18 Feb
vs Santa Fe
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WDLDDW
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Llaneros
2–2
D
18 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jaguares and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Jaguares have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente Medellin 48%.
How many goals will there be in Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Jaguares 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jaraguay.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
