Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Bucaramanga to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗41% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Independiente Medellin take on Bucaramanga on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Bucaramanga sit 4th on 32 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 4: DDWD Most recently they drew with Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Independiente Medellin and 1.1 for Bucaramanga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Bucaramanga to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Bucaramanga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin41%fair 2.43 · @2.28
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.05
Bucaramanga33%fair 2.99 · @3.25
2.33Expected goals
1.24Independiente Medellin xG
1.09Bucaramanga xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.2 – 1.1 Bucaramanga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
41%
2.43
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 4
DDWD
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Llaneros
2–2
D
18 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Deportivo Pereira
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bucaramanga
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Bucaramanga.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bucaramanga 33%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Bucaramanga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
