Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓64% · @1.35
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓83% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.16
Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Atletico Nacional take on Alianza Valledupar on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 00:20 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Alianza Valledupar sit 16th on 18 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Atletico Nacional and 0.8 for Alianza Valledupar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 64%, draw 20%, Alianza Valledupar 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Alianza Valledupar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional64%fair 1.57 · @1.35
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @4.75
Alianza Valledupar17%fair 6.03 · @7.25
2.75Expected goals
1.91Atletico Nacional xG
0.83Alianza Valledupar xG
51%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.9 – 0.8 Alianza Valledupar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
64%
1.57
1.35
Double chance
Atletico Nacional or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.37
Half-time result
Atletico Nacional ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.16
–
Form
Atletico Nacional – last 2
LW
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alianza Valledupar – last 1
D
17 Feb
vs Cucuta
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Nacional and Alianza Valledupar.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Alianza Valledupar 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 2–0 Alianza Valledupar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
