Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Once Caldas to win @ 3.75 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓48% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.42
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima host Once Caldas in the Primera A on Sunday 15 February, with kick-off at 22:20 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Once Caldas sit 8th on 27 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Once Caldas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 48%, draw 24%, Once Caldas 29%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Once Caldas to win at 3.75 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Once Caldas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima48%fair 2.10 · @2.14
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.00
Once Caldas29%fair 3.48 · @3.75
2.05Expected goals
1.21Deportes Tolima xG
0.84Once Caldas xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.2 – 0.8 Once Caldas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✓
48%
2.10
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.42
–
Form
Deportes Tolima
No recent results on record.
Once Caldas
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Once Caldas 29%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Once Caldas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 22:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
