Value bet: D. La Serena to win @ 2.58 – our chance 46% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultD. La Serena to win ✗46% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.75
Concepción vs D. La Serena preview and prediction
The match
D. La Serena travel to Municipal de Collao in the Primera División on Sunday 19 April (01:00 WAT) to face Concepción. Concepción are 8th with 38 points from 27 games (in the top half), while D. La Serena sit 9th on 37 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Concepción's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Union La Calera 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
D. La Serena's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to A. Italiano 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
D. La Serena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Concepción and 1.3 for D. La Serena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Concepción 32%, draw 22%, D. La Serena 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: D. La Serena to win at 2.58 – 46% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Concepción 1–1 D. La Serena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Concepción32%fair 3.17 · @2.58
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
D. La Serena46%fair 2.16 · @2.58
2.32Expected goals
1.01Concepción xG
1.31D. La Serena xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Concepción 1.0 – 1.3 D. La Serena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
D. La Serena to win✗
46%
2.16
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT D. La Serena / FT D. La Serena✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.75
–
Form
Concepción – last 6
LLLLLD
14 Apr
@ Union La Calera
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Coquimbo Unido
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Colo Colo
1–3
L
14 Mar
@ A. Italiano
0–3
L
7 Mar
vs Nublense
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Cobresal
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
D. La Serena – last 6
LDDWWD
26 Mar
@ A. Italiano
1–3
L
20 Mar
@ Universidad de Chile
2–2
D
16 Mar
@ Nublense
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Union La Calera
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Cobresal
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Universidad de Concepcion
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concepción and D. La Serena.
What is the prediction for Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Concepción vs D. La Serena?
On our numbers Concepción have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and D. La Serena 46%.
How many goals will there be in Concepción vs D. La Serena?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Our predicted score is Concepción 1–1 D. La Serena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Concepción vs D. La Serena?
Concepción vs D. La Serena (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Collao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
