Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Piteå to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPiteå to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Piteå vs Järfälla preview and prediction
The match
The Ettan Norra sees Piteå take on Järfälla on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at LF Arena. Piteå are 14th with 27 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Järfälla sit 15th on 24 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Piteå's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Umeå FC 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Järfälla's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Karlberg 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.0 for Piteå and 1.3 for Järfälla. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Piteå 55%, draw 21%, Järfälla 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Piteå to win at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Piteå 1–1 Järfälla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Piteå55%fair 1.82 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.50
Järfälla24%fair 4.13 · @3.00
3.25Expected goals
2.00Piteå xG
1.25Järfälla xG
63%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–08%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Piteå 2.0 – 1.3 Järfälla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piteå to win✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Piteå ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piteå / FT Piteå✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.33
–
Form
Piteå – last 6
LLWLDL
16 Sep
vs Umeå FC
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ AFC Eskilstuna
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Karlberg
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ FBK Karlstad
3–4
L
23 Aug
@ Hammarby Talang
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs AIK Stockholm
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Järfälla – last 6
WLLLLL
17 Sep
vs Karlberg
5–0
W
12 Sep
@ Gefle IF
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs FBK Karlstad
0–3
L
29 Aug
vs Assyriska FF
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Stockholm Internazionale
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ Sollentuna
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piteå and Järfälla.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Piteå vs Järfälla?
On our numbers Piteå have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Järfälla 24%.
How many goals will there be in Piteå vs Järfälla?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piteå vs Järfälla?
Our predicted score is Piteå 1–1 Järfälla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Piteå vs Järfälla?
Piteå vs Järfälla (Ettan Norra) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at LF Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
