Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Vasalund to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasalund to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.82
Umeå FC vs Vasalund preview and prediction
The match
The Ettan Norra sees Umeå FC take on Vasalund on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 12:45 (WAT) at Umea Energi Arena. Umeå FC are 8th with 43 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Vasalund sit 13th on 34 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Umeå FC's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Enköping 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Vasalund's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Stocksund 4–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Vasalund arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Vasalund 3–1 Umeå FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Umeå FC and 1.7 for Vasalund. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Umeå FC 38%, draw 21%, Vasalund 40%.
Value angle: Vasalund to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Umeå FC 1–2 Vasalund. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Umeå FC38%fair 2.63 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.55
Vasalund40%fair 2.47 · @2.75
3.25Expected goals
1.60Umeå FC xG
1.65Vasalund xG
55%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Umeå FC 1.6 – 1.7 Vasalund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
On our numbers Umeå FC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vasalund 40%.
How many goals will there be in Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
Our predicted score is Umeå FC 1–2 Vasalund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
Umeå FC vs Vasalund (Ettan Norra) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 12:45 (West Africa Time) at Umea Energi Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
