Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win60% · @1.86
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–114% · fair 7.16
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Club Sp. San Lorenzo host Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional Apertura on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Gunther Vogel.
Form guide
Club Sp. San Lorenzo's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with 2 de Mayo 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Libertad Asuncion 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.7 for Nacional Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 17%, draw 23%, Nacional Asuncion 60%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional Asuncion or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Club Sp. San Lorenzo17%fair 6.04 · @4.10
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.25
Nacional Asuncion60%fair 1.66 · @1.86
2.52Expected goals
0.78Club Sp. San Lorenzo xG
1.74Nacional Asuncion xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.8 – 1.7 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win
60%
1.66
1.86 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.18
Half-time result
Nacional Asuncion ahead at half-time
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
14%
7.16
–
Form
Club Sp. San Lorenzo – last 5
DDLLD
17 Mar
vs 2 de Mayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sportivo Luqueno
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Libertad Asuncion
0–7
L
26 Feb
@ Rubio NU
0–2
L
19 Feb
vs Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Nacional Asuncion – last 5
LDDDW
19 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Deportivo Recoleta
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Cerro Porteno
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Club Sp. San Lorenzo have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nacional Asuncion 60%.
How many goals will there be in Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gunther Vogel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Gunther Vogel
Libertad Asuncion2
Cerro Porteno3