Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Libertad Asuncion to win @ 3.05 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro Porteno to win ✓39% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.53
Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno preview and prediction
The match
Cerro Porteno travel to Estadio Tigo La Huerta in the Division Profesional Apertura on Sunday 22 March (00:30 WAT) to face Libertad Asuncion.
Form guide
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Nacional Asuncion 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerro Porteno's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Rubio NU 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Libertad Asuncion and 1.2 for Cerro Porteno. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Libertad Asuncion to win at 3.05 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Cerro Porteno. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad Asuncion35%fair 2.84 · @3.05
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.98
Cerro Porteno39%fair 2.54 · @2.34
2.33Expected goals
1.12Libertad Asuncion xG
1.21Cerro Porteno xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.1 – 1.2 Cerro Porteno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro Porteno to win✓
39%
2.54
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro Porteno / FT Cerro Porteno✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.53
–
Form
Libertad Asuncion – last 6
WWWWLL
19 Mar
vs Nacional Asuncion
2–1
W
14 Mar
@ 2 de Mayo
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Sportivo Luqueno
1–0
W
3 Mar
@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo
7–0
W
26 Feb
@ Olimpia
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Rubio NU
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cerro Porteno – last 5
LWWWL
18 Mar
@ Rubio NU
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Sportivo Trinidense
2–1
W
2 Mar
vs Deportivo Recoleta
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Sportivo Ameliano
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Nacional Asuncion
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno.
What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro Porteno 39%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Cerro Porteno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Nacional Asuncion