Value bet: Alianza to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceAlianza or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.33
Alianza vs Municipal Limeño preview and prediction
The match
Alianza host Municipal Limeño in the Primera Division on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT). Alianza are 7th with 26 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Municipal Limeño sit 8th on 23 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Alianza and 0.8 for Municipal Limeño. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza 63%, draw 21%, Municipal Limeño 17%.
Safer route: Alianza or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Alianza to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Alianza 1–0 Municipal Limeño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.20
Municipal Limeño17%fair 5.97 · @3.95
2.58Expected goals
1.80Alianza xG
0.78Municipal Limeño xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alianza 1.8 – 0.8 Municipal Limeño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza to win✓
63%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Alianza or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Alianza ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza / FT Alianza✓
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.33
–
Form
Alianza – last 2
WL
19 Feb
@ Águila
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ FAS
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Municipal Limeño – last 2
WW
19 Feb
vs Zacatecoluca
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Fuerte San Francisco
5–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza and Municipal Limeño.
What is the prediction for Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
On our numbers Alianza have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Municipal Limeño 17%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Our predicted score is Alianza 1–0 Municipal Limeño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Alianza vs Municipal Limeño (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hércules2
Zacatecoluca2