Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenapolense to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chancePenapolense or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.63
Penapolense vs Barretos preview and prediction
The match
Penapolense host Barretos in the Paulista A4 on Wednesday 25 March, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Penapolense's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Grêmio Sãocarlense 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for Penapolense and 0.5 for Barretos. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Penapolense to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penapolense 1–0 Barretos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penapolense64%fair 1.57 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.10
Barretos14%fair 7.39 · @3.75
1.89Expected goals
1.44Penapolense xG
0.46Barretos xG
45%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
2–016%
0–015%
1–110%
3–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Penapolense 1.4 – 0.5 Barretos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penapolense to win✗
64%
1.57
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Penapolense or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penapolense / FT Penapolense✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
22%
4.63
–
Form
Penapolense – last 6
DWDLDL
21 Mar
@ Grêmio Sãocarlense
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs Jabaquara
3–2
W
7 Mar
vs Inter de Bebedouro
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ EC Lemense
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Vocem
0–0
D
25 Feb
@ Taquaritinga
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barretos – last 2
LW
19 Mar
vs Inter de Bebedouro
0–1
L
25 Feb
@ Jabaquara
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penapolense and Barretos.
What is the prediction for Penapolense vs Barretos?
Our pick is Penapolense to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Penapolense vs Barretos?
On our numbers Penapolense have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barretos 14%.
How many goals will there be in Penapolense vs Barretos?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penapolense vs Barretos?
Our predicted score is Penapolense 1–0 Barretos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Penapolense vs Barretos?
Penapolense vs Barretos (Paulista A4) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Colorado Caieiras0
São Caetano4
Nacional SP0
ECUS0
Taquaritinga2
Tanabi1
EC Lemense0
Jabaquara0