Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: ECUS to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultECUS to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.98
Nacional SP vs ECUS preview and prediction
The match
Nacional SP host ECUS in the Paulista A4 on Wednesday 25 March, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Nacional SP's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat AEA 3–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
ECUS's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Colorado Caieiras 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Nacional SP and 1.1 for ECUS. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional SP 29%, draw 24%, ECUS 48%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.57.
Value angle: ECUS to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Nacional SP 0–1 ECUS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional SP29%fair 3.47 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.95
ECUS48%fair 2.10 · @2.25
1.91Expected goals
0.78Nacional SP xG
1.13ECUS xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–015%
1–113%
1–011%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Nacional SP 0.8 – 1.1 ECUS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ECUS to win✗
48%
2.10
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ECUS / FT ECUS✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.98
–
Form
Nacional SP – last 3
WLL
19 Mar
@ AEA
3–2
W
4 Mar
vs Taquaritinga
0–4
L
25 Feb
vs EC Lemense
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
ECUS – last 5
WWLDL
18 Mar
@ Colorado Caieiras
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Jabaquara
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Tanabi
0–1
L
25 Feb
@ São Caetano
0–0
D
14 Feb
@ Penapolense
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional SP and ECUS.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Nacional SP vs ECUS?
On our numbers Nacional SP have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and ECUS 48%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional SP vs ECUS?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional SP vs ECUS?
Our predicted score is Nacional SP 0–1 ECUS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional SP vs ECUS?
Nacional SP vs ECUS (Paulista A4) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Colorado Caieiras0
São Caetano4
Taquaritinga2
Tanabi1
EC Lemense0
Jabaquara0
Penapolense1
Barretos1